Decision Making

Decision Making

• Estimation
  • Estimation of the Mean:
    • E.g., estimating average speed with a fluctuating speedometer
    • We are not real accurate, but we are not biased.
  • Estimation of Proportions and Probability:
    • e.g., estimating how often something happens.
    • Estimation of extreme proportions, >.90 or <.10 are biased towards moderate proportions.
      • May be due to salience of rare events.
    • Estimate salient events as more probable.

Previous slide

Next slide

Back to the first slide

View Graphic Version

by biased, it is meant that most estimates are in one direction from the actual value than the other direction.